April 25, 2014

April 28, 2011
Guelph Biomathematics and Biostatistics (BioM&S) Symposium
Climate Change and Ecology: a Mathematical & Statistical Perspective

Organizers: Julie Horrocks and Marcus Garvie,
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Guelph
To be held at the

OVC Pathobiology Animal Health Lab (PAHL)
(Room 1800)

(on-line until April 27, 2011)
Registration fee $25, Students $15
(no refunds on fees)

*On-site registration available April 28, 2011*

If you are interested in giving a contributed talk or poster, please email a title and abstract to by April 7, 2010.
Acceptance notices by April 14, 2010.
Presentation Slides
Confirmed participants Abstracts Directions to Guelph and Map


The principal objective of the symposium is to facilitate collaborations between mathematicians, statisticians and bioscience researchers. This year the theme is on climate change and ecology and is keynoted by two invited lectures, including the Gordon C. Ashton Memorial Biometrics Lecture. This year's symposium is intended to provide exposure to various mathematical and statistical techniques used to model and analyze the impact of climate change on the environment.

Invited Speakers:
Dr. James Zidek (UBC)
Marie-Josée Fortin (Toronto)

Presentation Slides of the Talks:

Dr. Yulia Gel, Department of Statistics & Actuarial Sciences, University of Waterloo.
Detecting Trends in Hydrological Time Series, with Application to Ice Phenology Data

Dr. William Langford, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Guelph.
Hadley Cell Changes in Today's Climate and Paleoclimates


8:45-9:00 Welcome and Introduction

Session 1: Gordon C. Ashton Biometry Lecture, Keynote Speaker

Dr. James V. Zidek, Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia
Title: Forecasting Phenological Events in Agroclimate Risk Management

10:00-10:15 Coffee and Pastries
10:15-10:45 Dr. Lev Tarasov, Dept of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland.
Bayesian Artificial Neural Network assisted calibration of Earth Systems Models with structural error estimation

Dr. Yulia Gel, Department of Statistics & Actuarial Sciences, University of Waterloo.
Detecting Trends in Hydrological Time Series, with Application to Ice Phenology Data

11:15-11:30 Coffee Break
11:30-12:00 Dr. Alexander Brenning, Department of Geography, University of Waterloo.
Spatiotemporal analysis of remotely-sensed snow cover patterns: Insights from survival models and generalized additive models

12:00-1:30 Lunch (will be served)

Keynote Speaker

Dr. Marie-Josée Fortin, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto
Title: Species geographical range shifts due to global change: adding the temporal dimension to species distribution models

2:30-2:45 Coffee and Cookies
2:45-3:15 Dr. William Langford, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Guelph.
Hadley Cell Changes in Today's Climate and Paleoclimates
3:15-3:45 Dr. Lilia Leticia Ramirez Ramirez, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Waterloo.
Use of GOP and hierarchical space-time models to derive probabilistic weather forecasts

3:45-4:00 Coffee Break
4:00-4:30 Dr. Jay Malcolm, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto.
Potential migration corridors for climate-change induced tree migration in southern Ontario.
4:30-5:00 Dr. Dalhai He, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University.
Mechanistic modelling of the three waves in the 1918 influenza pandemic in the UK: effects of school term, weather and human behavioral response

Directions to Guelph and Map

The symposium will be held in Room 1800 of the OVC Pathobiology Animal Health Lab (PAHL), Gordon St at McGilvray.

This is building 89 on the Campus Map, Grid F6. (Note that there is an older pathobiology building on College, so please take care!).

*Parking Directions and Costs*
The best place to park is Visitor’s Parking Lot P44. The entrance to the parking lot is from College Avenue, on the other side of Gordon.
See the Campus Map. It is a short walk to the Pathobiology Building – please cross at Gordon and College as there are lights.
The most economical option is to pay by VISA or MasterCard for the whole day ($10.00). If paying by cash, the cost is $16.00 per day or $2.00 per hour.

List of Confirmed Participants as of April 28, 2011

Full Name University Name
Abbas, Fazal University of Guelph
Allen, Brian University of Guelph
Althubyani, Mohammed College of Physical and Engineering Science, University of Guelph
Berke, Olaf University of Guelph
Bifolchi, Nadia University of Guelph
Brenning, Alexander University of Waterloo
Brown, Joseph Alexander University of Guelph
Connolly, Jessica University of Guelph
Crea, Cathy University of Guelph
Dang, Utkarsh University of Guelph
Darlington, Gerarda University of Guelph
Deardon, Rob University of Guelph
Dobbs, Annie University of Guelph
Eberl, Hermann J. University of Guelph
Feng, Zeny University of Guelph
Fortin, Marie-Josée University of Toronto
Gallant, Bo University of Guelph
Gallant, Michael  
Garvie, Marcus University of Guelph
Gel, Yulia University of Waterloo
Gordon, Paul University of Guelph
He, DaiHai McMaster University
Horrocks, Julie University of Guelph
Ieraci, Luciano University of Toronto
Inch, Matthew University of Guelph
Keown-Stoneman, Charlie University of Guelph
Ker, Alan University of Guelph
Khassehkhan, Hassan University of Guelph
Kumar, Niraj Queen's University
Kwong, Grace University of Guelph
Langford, William University of Guelph
Malcolm, Jay University of Toronto
Malik, Rajat University of Guelph
Manns, Hida University of Guelph
Martchenko, Daria University of Guelph
Monette, Georges York University
Moorthy, Arun University of Guelph
Morsky, Bryce University of Guelph
O'Brien, Kristen University of Toronto
Persson, Gregory University of Guelph
Petukhova, Tatiana University of Guelph
Pichika, Sathish Chandra McMaster University
Rahman, Kazi University of Guelph
Ramirez Ramirez, Lilia University of Waterloo
Ratti, Vardayani University of Guelph
Ringa, Notice University of Guelph
Sudarsan, Rangarajan University of Guelph
Tait, Megan University of Guelph
Tarasov, Lev Memorial University
Tully, Stephen University of Guelph
Uzor, Blessing University of Guelph
Vlasic, Andrew University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Wang, Weiqiang University of Guelph
Xin, Xin University of Guelph
Zidek, James University of British Columbia
Bunjaj, Gezim University of Tirana
Lawani, Abdelaziz North Carolina State University
Requena, David National University of San Marcos
Wang, Ying University of Minnesota
Wu, Yan Yan York University


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